November 9, 2019 by squish
Written by Gerry Leung
We had some solid performances last week as Cook and Bell both topped 100 total yards. Samuels had an odd game as he rushed only 8 times for 10 yards but had a monstrous 13 receptions for 73 yards. Lockett capped off the afternoon slate with 13 catches for 152 yards and 2 touchdowns. A great overall week and we will look to continue that this week in some games with high game totals again.
Michael Thomas WR – ($8300 DK/$8500 FD)
Even without Brees under quarterback, Thomas still leads the league with 73 catches and 875 receiving yards. Thomas gets a healthy Brees against this Falcons defense that we have been picking on all year long with receivers. Here are the splits with and without Brees for Thomas (Per RotoViz Game Splits app)
With Brees (two games): 12 targets, 10.5 receptions, 117.5 yards, 0.5 touchdowns
Without Brees (six games): 10.8 targets, 8.7 receptions, 107.7 yards, 0.5 touchdowns
Coming off a week 9 bye he should be fully rested for this game which is projected for 51 points. With Ryan also returning this week, expect the game to shootout (Hammer the over on the game if you can). This game is also played at the Superdome which has a long history of high scoring shootouts. Thomas has the floor and ceiling to finish as a WR1 this week.
Saquon Barkley – (8800 DK/ $8600 FD)
Barkley has been a bit of a disappointment this season. He also did miss weeks 4-6 with an ankle injury. Even when healthy he’s been hit by the regression monster. Below are his 2019 vs 2018 stats (Per RotoViz Game Splits app)
2019 (five games): 16 carries for 78.2 yards and 0.4 touchdowns rushing, 7.2 targets for 4.8 receptions, 40.2 yards and 0.2 touchdowns receiving
2018 (16 games): 16.3 carries for 81.7 yards and 0.69 touchdowns rushing, 7.6 targets for 5.7 receptions, 45.1 yards and 0.25 touchdowns receiving
Though he still has a high floor each week, his decline in scoring has lowered his ceiling. He makes up for it with his involvement in the passing game. The Jets have allowed the 4th most catches to opposing running backs per game. He is also leading the G Men with 23 red zone opportunities and the Jets bring the 4th worst red zone defense in the league, allowing a touchdown on 65.4% of red zone trips.
If I recall, Fournette had a very similar matchup in week 8 and he gave us a very productive week. Though Barkley may not be his old self, he has a mouthwatering matchup this week against the Jets defense.
Jaylen Samuels RB – (6300 DK/ $6200 FD)
Samuels will be very popular this week with Conner being ruled out. In the 3 starts last year Samuels averaged over 15 fantasy points, 74.3 rushing yards and 35 yards receiving per game. He will be tasked to take on the Rams who rank just 27th in pass defense against running backs (19.7% DVOA this season).
This is a perfect matchup for Samuels who was heavily involved in the pass game last week, hauling in 13 receptions. He only managed 8 rush attempts last week, but expect him to see double digit carries this week against the Rams. Though his price tag is up, he’s still in play in all formats given his receiving floor that he brings.
Christian Kirk – ($5200 DK/$5700 FD)
Last week we saw Tyler Lockett dust the Buccaneers secondary out of the slot for 152 yards and 2 TDs. Kirk who runs predominantly out of the slot will get the same matchup this week. The Bucs allow a touchdown on 6.7% of slot passes which is the 8th highest rate in the league. They allow the most fantasy points per game against receivers, the third most targets and second most receptions.
Although he hasn’t scored yet he is averaging a team high 8.8 targets, 5.7 catches, 54.8 receiving yards and 99.8 air yards per game. We’ve streamed receiver’s year round on the Bucs and why should we stop now? Given his price tag he is a great value this week.
Being successful in DFS comes down to your ability to identify news, matchups, and value. Each week, I’ll go through my top 4 core plays highlighting players with the most volume and value. While things may change leading up to kickoff, please be sure to check lineups following injuries or inactives. Good luck this week and feel free to hit me up on twitter with any questions @GK_Leung.